Showing posts with label Wishful Thinking. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wishful Thinking. Show all posts

Friday, May 09, 2014

Argument from imagination

Other terms and/or related concepts

Appeal to ignorance; hidden premise; unfounded assumptions; Hume's razor; Ockham's razor; wishful thinking; conspiracy thinking; magical thinking; intuition; simpleminded certitude.

Description

The advocate forwards a hypothesis and assumes it is true without any evidence other than their imagination. They do not refer to any external or empirical evidence in support of their claim. They rely solely on intuition, making unequivocal statements about their hypothesis as if it is a fact, when in reality it is something based on an unfounded belief or their imaginings.

Examples

1. Jan Jones is deputy principal as a large primary school. She is reviewing a colleague's Year 3 mathematics assessment, which asks students to photograph and classify 3-dimensional objects. She says: "I don't think Year 3s would find his investigation interesting. I'd imagine they're more interested in doing something hands-on with concrete materials rather than this."

2. A recent government inquiry recommended that health funds stop covering homoeopathy on the grounds it is pseudoscientific, has no plausibility or demonstrable efficacy beyond placebo. Johnson Royale, spokesperson for the Homoeopathic Society, is attempting to defend homoeopathy on a talk show.

One of the hosts asks a surprisingly adroit question: "How could homoeopathy have any effect given there is no trace of the supposed active ingredient after it has been diluted hundreds or thousands of times? And then how is it that the other natural trace elements in the water have no effect given the exact same thing happens to them?"

Johnson says: "We're still not sure. The leading views are that water has a memory, which could be something to do with quantum theory or information theory. And water remembers the ingredient we want because we shake it 10 times in a special way every time we dilute it."

Comment

An argument from imagination can be thought of as the opposite of an appeal to ignorance (something cannot be true because the advocate cannot imagine how it could be true); that is, an advocate states their position is true because they imagine it to be true. They will rarely phrase it this way, but if we consider the two examples above, neither cites any external evidence in support of their claims. They assert a belief and justify it with another belief.

In the first example, Jan makes a seemingly plausible statement. It is reasonable to think students in Year 3 will find hands on activities interesting. However, this does not mean they will find the proposed assessment uninteresting. More importantly, she does not have any evidence for her position other than what she imagines to be the case. She is in her mid-fifties. What she imagines 8 year olds find interesting or uninteresting might not be as accurate as she thinks. Given this, it would be worth trialling the assessment to gather some empirical evidence, rather than throwing it out based on her intuition.

The second example, homoeopathy, contradicts all the known laws of physics and chemistry. Any possible explanation about how homoeopathy works is stated as if one of them is actually true. Again, they provide no external evidence or coherent theory. We are expected to believe the supposed mechanisms imagined by the proponents. In this case, we would also be contradicting well-established physics and chemistry. The imaginings of how homoeopathy supposedly works do not pass the test of coherence with the rest of science. Either what Johnson proposes is wrong, or if right, the laws of physics and chemistry need to be re-written. In order to do this we will need evidence on the level of Hume's razor. Other elements of homoeopathy, such as the dilution process known as "succussion", enter the realm of magical thinking.

Imagination is essential. Scientific discovery and technological progress all involve creativity and imagination. The clichéd robotic and unimaginative scientist would never discover anything. The issue arises when one is too simpleminded to recognise the difference between imaginings, and scientific theory and evidence; or too lazy or incapable of doing the work to investigate and test what they imagine.

A simple way to approach arguments from imagination is to point it out bluntly. If a proponent claims: "Doing X will cause y", responded to by rephrasing: "In your imagination, doing X will cause y." Try not to be too mocking. Just point out that all you are asking for is some evidence beyond the proponent's own opinion.

Monday, January 28, 2013

Argument to Consequences

Other Terms and/or Related Concepts

Argument to repercussions; appeal to fear; swinging the big stick; wishful thinking.



Description

The "classic" version of this fallacy is the common case where an advocate will not entertain the possibility that an opponent's argument is correct, because if it is correct there will be adverse consequences.

Example

Margaret Chemise says to Claude Nads: "I was reading about a sociologist who has found that there are differences in the average intelligence of different racial groups. She found this out by conducting what she claims was a culturally neutral IQ test." Claude responds: "Well she must have got it wrong. There isn't an average difference in IQ between different races of people because if there was, it would allow bigots to justify their racism."

Comment

When delusional advocates believe something to be true or false because they want it to be true or false, an argument to consequences is involved. When they are hopeful for a positive consequence, they are engaging in a particular version of argument to consequences called wishful thinking. In the example above however, Claude invokes an argument to adverse consequences.

He reasons that differences in IQ between racial groups must not exist, because if they did exist it would adversely affect race relations. In doing so he is making an unjustifiable assertion. He would be better off addressing his core concerns about race relations by engaging in subtle and complex arguments about: (a) whether or not culturally neutral IQ tests can ever be constructed; and (b) whether statistically significant differences between populations are relevant to public policy. In the end, there may be an argument for not conducting IQ tests across racial and cultural groups, but there cannot be a reasoned argument for simply declaring á priori that there are no differences in IQ.

The key factor here is not whether the proponent agrees or disagrees with a study, assertion, argument, proposition or conclusion (because of what it says). It is the quality of the reasoning behind the agreement or disagreement, (why it says it) that is important. If the reasoning boils down to a general case of the following form: "X cannot be true because it ought not to be true," (or "Y must be true because it ought to be true") then the wishful (non)thinker is wallowing in the fallacy and fantasy world of argument to consequences.

A pernicious form of the argument to adverse consequences fallacy occurs when researchers engaged in some form of advocacy research, assume that results which do not agree with their cherished hypothesis cannot be "true". The individual in such circumstances is forced to contemplate a very unpleasant proposition, which might be put as follows: "My career to date has been based on false assumptions, and I have therefore wasted years of diligent effort."

Under such circumstances, the temptation is for the disillusioned advocacy-researcher to assume some methodological fallacy, rather than to seriously question his or her hypothesis. Disillusioned and desperate researchers redesign and repeat their research until they obtain the desired result. "Failed" surveys or experiments are not of course published in "the literature". Rather, they are discarded and are not ultimately reported to the research community. This phenomenon is sometimes known as "publication bias". Publication bias means that from time to time the corpus of knowledge in a particular discipline is distorted. "If at first you don't succeed, try, try and try again," is probably not an advisable precept for a researcher who claims to be a disinterested seeker after truth.

Thursday, June 25, 2009

BARRY IN ACTION (i.e. INACTION)

Chairman Barry takes a moment to reflect on the plight of murdered and jailed Iranian protestors.

Can the most powerful and protected man in history stand by and let innocents be killed by a murderous regime?

Yes we can.



Monday, June 01, 2009

OBAMA'S BURDEN - FROM THE ONION

It is mere coincidence but this recent item from THE ONION relates to and reinforces well to my previous post below on Burden of Solution. Warning: while this is a serious website I suspect The Onion is inclined to satire.


WASHINGTON—In a slight shift from his campaign trail promise, President Obama announced Monday that his administration's message of "Change" has been modified to the somewhat more restrained slogan "Relatively Minor Readjustments in Certain Favorable Policy Areas." "Today, Americans face a great many challenges, and I hear your desperate calls for barely measurable and largely symbolic improvements in the status quo," said Obama, who vowed never to waver in his fight for every last infinitesimal nudge forward on the controversial issues of torture and the military ban on homosexuals. "Remember: Yes we can, if by that you mean tiptoeing around potentially unpopular decisions that could alienate a large segment of the populace." Washington insiders said that, while the new mottos are certainly in keeping with Obama's pledge of government transparency, they are significantly less catchy

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Podcast: Hunting Humbug 101 - Tutorial 16: Wishful Thinking (Feat. Oprah and The Secret)











In this podcast we look at the fallacy Argument to Consequences – in the specific form of Wishful Thinking. Also: WIN! WIN! WIN! a copy of the paperback edition of Humbug! Be one of the first 3 reviews for the podcast on iTunes and you have a 1/3rd chance of receiving an autographed copy of our book! You can’t get much better odds than that! Send me the text of your review before you post it (so no dodgy person flogs your work…) theo dot clark at skepticsfieldguide.net

Hit this link to go to the podcast to download/subscribe, and full show notes: Tutorial 16 - Wishful Thinking, or just play it below.

Saturday, January 15, 2005

Examples of Wishful Thinking

The advocate claims that something must be true on the grounds that they wish it were true.

Internal Tag:



Podcast:
Hit this link to go to the podcast to download/subscribe, and full show notes: Tutorial 16 - Wishful Thinking, or just play it below.