I had started to write a detailed post about “The One”, but the show is so credulous and poorly done, I can’t be bothered. I also can’t be bothered to explain the background of this show – read it from the link above.
All I’ll say is the obvious flaw is they should have seven non-psychics doing the tests with the seven psychics. (Even better if it's double blind and no one knows who is a "real" psychic and who is a fake.) If the psychics beat the non-psychics hands down – there you go. Without a control group, the tests are essentially meaningless. Moreover, because it’s TV, they do a test only once. That isn’t even close to being methodologically sound. I could use it as a test item in my science classes. “Q1: Identity two flaws in experimental design that essentially make ‘The One’ complete BS.”
They should have also employed a magician to perform cold-reading etc. They could have even just explained cold reading. Oh Richard, I hope the pay was worth it. (Then again, someone had to do it I suppose…)
The last thing I’ll point out is Daddo’s introduction:
Good evening. How would you like to live in a world where a chosen few could solve our greatest mysteries [well, why haven’t they already?], or know things about you, you barely knew yourself [and, how are to verify they are not just making it up as they go along, or more likely, making obvious generalisations?]. Or do we live in that world already? You see, a lot of people think we do and others are [long pause] quite certain we don’t [note the skeptics are already painted as being the “certain” ones]. Do you have an open mind [straight after the “certain” skeptic]? Are you up to challenging your beliefs? This is the search for Australia’s most gifted psychic [note the presumption…]. Welcome, to The One.Then the cat was let out of the bag when Daddo asked the psychic judge: “You know this works?” To which she replied: “Yes, I know this works.”
So who’s certain?
Richard has put himself in a no-win situation. No chance to explain cold-reading, confirmation bias, probability, controlled experiments, all the while having to try and sound “open-minded” and not cynical (a word Daddo interchanged with skeptical at least once), or even worse, “baffled”.
My only hope for the show is the producers have secretly used a magician as one of the psychics… That would be awesome. However, my psychic said I was due for an unluckly second half of the year, so I don't like my chances.
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Update: I think The Chasers need to deal with this show.
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Update 2: As much as I like Richard Saunders, I think "The One" needs Criss Angel as a judge.
9 comments:
One (no pun intended) of the issues with the 'Cris Angel' approach is that he was widely condemned as rude and aggressive and the point was pretty much lost by doing what he did. Richard at least has a chance with future eps... and hopefully better editing. I'll be going through the 'Paranormal Freestyle' later today in detail. :) Thanks for the link!
That’s why Richard’s in a no-win situation. He has to try and appear the fluffiest and nicest. As soon as he poo-poos something he’ll be the “close-minded skeptic”. To his credit, he’s doing as good a job as one reasonably could.
The best of both worlds would be having a “Criss Angel type” as a third judge. Thus Richard would appear to be the “seeker after truth”, and I’d get to laugh.
The best approach to dealing with this stuff, I think, is to keep saying to the “open minded” people: “If you are open minded, then you’ll obviously go and read up on cold reading, confirmation bias, and be more than happy to watch Derren Brown’s Messiah.” Just sew the seeds of doubt and that might get them thinking about this stuff in a more critical way.
"the best of both worlds" perhaps but not the real world. That's not the show they are making and all the hand-wringing of skeptics isn't going to change that. Of course Richard did explicitly talk a lot about cold reading and the specific techniques in the studio. It didn't make the cut this time (mostly), but hopefully will in the future after the stage setting is out of the way. 10% of something in this case is better than 100% of nothing.
Also I think maybe even Criss Angel wasn't born knowing the best way to do things for maximum effect on TV and had to learn by doing it, and became more effective over time.
To be fair to Richard, James Randi has a similar problem when he gets the opportunity to "confront" frauds on other shows.
He tries hard not to appear closed-minded or cynical and he often appears a little weak by comparison to his very certain opponents. Every half-hearted "concession" is accepted as a fully-fledged "thumbs-up" by the true believers.
As someone said in the Ch7 comments - Daddo should have asked the "psychic" judge what it would take to make her a non-believer? As it stands, it appears to viewers that the skeptic is the only one who needs to have his mind changed.
Why are no one's relatives ever in hell? Is this a sign that we can all sin without fear of damnation?
Spot on andyd. I just hope Richard had the opportunity to tell people to: "Look up 'cold reading' on the internet." That in itself could be enough to get fence sitters to fall the right way. If they aren't offered an alternative explanation, the psychic one will seem convincing.
John Edward has got to be the biggest fraud, how did he ever get popular? I never understood how alot of these "psychics"(including John Edward) always had trouble figuring out the name of the deceased loved one (i.e "does his name begin with a H"?) but then easily explain in detail what the loved one says about the after life (i.e "he says he's ok and he loves you and don't worry"). Good for the chasers for harassing Edward, they can smell a fraud from a mile away.
While John Edward is the biggest douche in the universe, I think Sylvia Brown wins the biggest fraud in the universe...
"While John Edward is the biggest douche in the universe, I think Sylvia Brown wins the biggest fraud in the universe..."
D'oh! *head meets desk*. I totally forgot about her. I think she's less popular now though after that one case she got wrong that was highly publicized. I never hear anything about her anymore. Is she even still on Montel's show??
Looks like Montel doesn't have a show anymore.
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